The Echelon Residential Demand Index (ERDI) is a weekly composite read on US residential trades demand. It combines financing conditions, housing turnover, permit velocity, consumer search demand, weather, and Echelon’s contractor-panel signal. The index uses 100 as the seasonal norm. Interpretation is labeled The read.
1. The print
For the week ending September 5, 2026, the ERDI prints 95.6, down 3.3 points from last week’s 98.9 reading.[1]
Two components explain nearly all of the decline. The proprietary contractor-panel signal fell 12.3 points, from 89.1 to 76.8, and subtracted 2.05 points from the composite. Search demand fell 5.9 points, from 98.4 to 92.5, and subtracted another 0.98 point. Together, they accounted for 3.03 of the 3.3-point drop.
The five market-facing components averaged 99.3, down from 100.8 last week. Three of six components remain above 100.
The read: this is broader weakness than last week’s print. The contractor-panel signal remains the largest drag, but search has now declined for a second week and the market-facing average has crossed below seasonal norm. The record does not yet establish a sustained contraction. It does establish that the weakness is no longer confined to one proprietary measure.
2. The components
| Component | This week | Last week | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|
| Search demand | 92.5 | 98.4 | The ten-keyword basket fell 5.9 points. DataForSEO supplies the Google Trends series used in the basket.[5] |
| Housing turnover | 100.7 | 100.7 | Existing-home sales held at a 4.06 million annual rate against a 4.03 million three-year same-month average.[3] |
| Permit velocity | 98.2 | 98.9 | July permits measured 1.433 million against a 1.459 million three-year same-month average.[4] |
| Financing | 100.6 | 101.6 | The 30-year mortgage rate averaged 6.66 percent against a 6.70 percent three-year same-week average.[2] |
| Weather stress | 104.6 | 104.6 | The ten-market thermal-stress basket held above its same-week seasonal norm. The series uses NOAA daily station observations.[6] |
| Echelon proprietary | 76.8 | 89.1 | The panel recorded 1,184 net new reviews across 937 comparable members, or 1.26 per member. |
Numbers of record
The ERDI printed 95.6 for the week ending September 5, 2026. The prior print was 98.9. The last four frozen prints are 99.9, 95.2, 98.9, and 95.6.
Current breadth is three components above 100 and three below 100. Search demand printed 92.5. Housing turnover printed 100.7. Permit velocity printed 98.2. Financing printed 100.6. Weather stress printed 104.6. The proprietary panel signal printed 76.8.
3. Findings from the Echelon database
The panel weakness has lasted beyond one observation
The proprietary component fell to 56.6 three prints ago, recovered to 89.1, then slipped to 76.8. The current panel recorded 1,184 net new reviews across 937 comparable members, equal to 1.26 reviews per member. The component remains below its seasonal baseline for a third consecutive print.
The read: the original 56.6 shock was unusually sharp, but the archive now shows that the panel did not return to normal after the rebound. Review activity can move because of completed-job volume, review collection practices, platform timing, or review removals. The signal does not prove booked-revenue weakness. It does justify treating the slowdown as persistent until another observation says otherwise.
Market-facing conditions weakened for a second week
The five components outside Echelon’s panel averaged 102.9 three prints ago, 100.8 last week, and 99.3 now. That is a 3.6-point decline across two observations. Search produced most of the movement, falling from 113.7 to 98.4 to 92.5.
The latest search basket was uneven. Foundation repair rose 8.0 points against its prior four-week average, and HVAC replacement rose 0.8. Roof replacement was 19.5 points below its recent average. AC repair was down 9.0, roof repair was down 7.8, and bathroom remodeling was down 4.2.
The read: homeowner intent softened across more of the basket. Foundation repair is the clear exception. The current evidence does not support a universal demand collapse, but it is weaker than a simple seasonal rotation among service lines.
The headline decline is concentrated, but not isolated
The proprietary panel contributed 62.1 percent of this week’s composite decline. Search contributed another 29.7 percent. Financing and permits together subtracted 0.29 point, while turnover and weather were unchanged.
This matters because the two largest drags measure different parts of the market. Search tracks homeowner attention across ten service categories. The panel tracks net review growth among comparable contractors. Their simultaneous weakness is more informative than either signal alone.
4. The strongest alternative explanation
Late-summer seasonality could explain much of this print. Cooling demand can fade as temperatures moderate, normalized Google Trends values can move when the source recalculates history, and review additions do not arrive on a fixed schedule. The weather component also held at 104.6, which cuts against a simple claim that operating conditions weakened everywhere.
A second observation would separate the readings. If search and the proprietary signal remain below 100 while the market-facing average declines again, the contraction read strengthens. If search rebounds near 100 and review velocity returns toward its baseline, this print will look more like timing and seasonal normalization than a durable break.
5. What operators should watch
Search breadth
Watch whether weakness remains concentrated in cooling, roofing, and remodeling terms or spreads into water heating, foundation repair, and other replacement categories. A broad second decline would carry more weight than another mixed basket.
Review velocity
The panel needs more than a partial rebound. A return toward the prior baseline would weaken the slowdown read. Another print near 1.26 reviews per member, or lower, would confirm that the panel has settled into a slower late-summer pace.
Permits and financing
Financing remains just above norm, while permits remain below it. Better borrowing conditions have not yet produced an above-baseline permit reading. The next monthly permit release will test whether that gap is closing.
The bottom line
The ERDI fell to 95.6, and the weakness widened beyond Echelon’s contractor panel.
The proprietary signal remains the largest drag. Search demand has now fallen for two consecutive prints, and the five market-facing components average 99.3. Three components remain above seasonal norm, so the board is weak rather than uniformly negative.
One more observation matters. A second week of weak search and review velocity would confirm a broader late-summer slowdown. A rebound in both would leave this print inside the index’s recent volatility.
Methodology and limitations
ERDI is an equal-weighted composite of six components. Each component is indexed to 100 using a baseline suited to the source series.
- Financing uses the current 30-year mortgage rate against the average for the same calendar week in the prior three years. Lower rates score higher.
- Housing turnover and permit velocity use the latest monthly level against the same-month average for the prior three years.
- Search demand uses the latest complete weekly value from a ten-keyword residential-trades basket against its trailing 52-week median.
- Weather stress uses the latest complete week from ten US weather stations against the same-week median from prior years.
- The proprietary signal uses weekly net review growth across a fixed contractor panel against the panel’s prior weekly median.
Monthly series update on their source publication schedules. Weekly source windows do not all end on the report’s stated week-ending date. Google Trends values are normalized to the selected query window and can drift when the source recalculates history. Echelon freezes the first computed weekly index as the number of record.
The proprietary panel measures review activity, not booked revenue. Review additions can reflect completed-job volume, review collection practices, platform timing, review removals, or a combination of those factors.
Echelon’s database snapshot contains 2,279,910 license or credential records across 20 state systems, including 1,217,720 records classified as active. These are source-native license or credential units, not unique companies or workers. Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, Nevada, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, and Washington have current collection or comparability limits, so this issue makes no claim about week-over-week national license movement.
This issue uses archived source pulls and contractor-panel snapshots frozen on August 30, 2026. ERDI is a directional demand indicator, not a revenue forecast. Market-level and company-level decision support remains part of Echelon’s paid intelligence work. This is not accounting, legal, or investment advice.
Sources
[1] https://echelonreports.com/echelon-report-009-index-rebounds-to-98-9-market-board-softens
[2] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US
[3] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EXHOSLUSM495S
[4] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PERMIT
[5] https://docs.dataforseo.com/v3/keywords_data-google-trends-explore-live/
[6] https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/global-historical-climatology-network-daily
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