The Echelon Residential Demand Index (ERDI) is a weekly composite read on US residential trades demand. It combines financing conditions, housing turnover, permit velocity, consumer search demand, weather, and Echelon’s contractor-panel signal. The index uses 100 as the seasonal norm. Interpretation is labeled The read.
1. The print
For the week ending September 12, 2026, the ERDI prints 97.1, up 1.5 points from last week’s 95.6 reading.[1]
The rebound is real, but concentrated. Weather stress rose 6.8 points to 111.4 and added 1.13 points to the composite. Echelon’s contractor-panel signal rose 3.6 points to 80.4 and added 0.60 point. Those two components contributed 1.73 points, more than the full increase because financing subtracted 0.23 point.
The five market-facing components averaged 100.4, up from 99.3 last week. Only two of six components sit above 100, down from three last week.
The read: the market moved back toward seasonal norm, but it did not confirm a broad demand recovery. Weather supplied most of the lift. Search demand barely changed, financing weakened, and the proprietary signal remained well below baseline for a fourth consecutive print.
2. The components
| Component | This week | Last week | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|
| Search demand | 92.7 | 92.5 | The ten-keyword basket rose 0.2 point. DataForSEO supplies the Google Trends series used in the basket.[5] |
| Housing turnover | 100.7 | 100.7 | Existing-home sales held at a 4.06 million annual rate against a 4.03 million three-year same-month average.[3] |
| Permit velocity | 98.2 | 98.2 | July permits held at 1.433 million against a 1.459 million three-year same-month average.[4] |
| Financing | 99.2 | 100.6 | The 30-year mortgage rate averaged 6.71 percent against a 6.66 percent three-year same-week average.[2] |
| Weather stress | 111.4 | 104.6 | The ten-market thermal-stress basket moved farther above its same-week seasonal norm. The series uses NOAA daily station observations.[6] |
| Echelon proprietary | 80.4 | 76.8 | The panel recorded 1,226 net new reviews across 938 comparable members, or 1.31 per member. |
Numbers of record
The ERDI printed 97.1 for the week ending September 12, 2026. The prior print was 95.6. The last four frozen prints are 95.2, 98.9, 95.6, and 97.1.
Current breadth is two components above 100 and four below 100. Search demand printed 92.7. Housing turnover printed 100.7. Permit velocity printed 98.2. Financing printed 99.2. Weather stress printed 111.4. The proprietary panel signal printed 80.4.
3. Findings from the Echelon database
The rebound came from weather and the panel, not search
Weather and the proprietary signal added 1.73 composite points this week. Search added 0.03 point. Housing turnover and permits were unchanged. Financing subtracted 0.23 point.
The read: last week’s weakness has not reversed broadly. One weather-heavy observation can lift the composite without showing that homeowner intent has recovered. Search remains 7.3 points below norm, and four components are still below 100.
The panel improved, but stayed weak for a fourth print
The proprietary component has printed 56.6, 89.1, 76.8, and now 80.4. The latest panel recorded 1,226 net new reviews across 938 comparable members, equal to 1.31 reviews per member. That is better than last week’s 1.26, but still below the panel’s 1.63 weekly baseline.
The read: the first collapse was not repeated, but the panel has not returned to normal either. Review activity can move because of completed-job volume, collection practices, platform timing, or removals. This remains a persistent operating signal, not proof that booked revenue has contracted.
The market-facing average recovered while breadth narrowed
The five components outside Echelon’s panel averaged 100.4, up 1.1 points from 99.3. At the same time, the number of components above 100 fell from three to two because financing slipped below baseline.
Weather explains the apparent conflict. Its 6.8-point increase lifted the average, while search remained at 92.7, permits held at 98.2, and financing fell to 99.2. Housing turnover was the only other component above norm.
The read: the average improved, but the board did not broaden. Operators should read the 97.1 headline as a partial rebound driven by operating conditions, not as an all-clear for residential demand.
4. The strongest alternative explanation
The weather move may be measuring service urgency that the other components will recognize later. Elevated thermal stress can create repair demand before search, reviews, permits, or monthly housing data register the effect. The proprietary panel also improved at the same time, which leaves open the possibility that completed-work activity is turning before the slower indicators.
The next observation can separate the readings. If search rises materially and the proprietary signal continues toward 100 while the market-facing average holds above baseline, the recovery read strengthens. If weather cools and the ERDI falls back while search and the panel remain weak, this week’s gain was mostly a weather pulse.
5. What operators should watch
Search breadth
HVAC replacement rose 7.5 points against its prior four-week average, foundation repair rose 5.2, and AC repair rose 1.2. Roof replacement remained the weakest term at 16.2 points below its recent average. Window replacement was down 5.8 and kitchen remodeling was down 3.8.
A recovery that reaches replacement, repair, and remodeling categories would carry more weight than another mixed basket.
Review velocity
The panel improved from 1.26 to 1.31 reviews per comparable member, but its baseline is 1.63. Another gain would support a gradual normalization read. A flat or lower print would leave the four-week weakness intact.
Financing and permits
Financing crossed below norm as the mortgage rate rose to 6.71 percent. Permits remain at 98.2 on a July data vintage. The monthly series will not settle a weekly demand question quickly, but they define the capital and construction constraints around any recovery.
The bottom line
The ERDI rose to 97.1, but weather did most of the work.
The market-facing average returned above 100, yet breadth narrowed to two positive components. Search was nearly flat. Financing weakened. Echelon’s panel improved, but remained below baseline for a fourth print.
The next week matters for a specific reason. Search and review velocity must follow weather upward for this to become a broader recovery. Without that confirmation, the 1.5-point gain is better read as a concentrated rebound inside a still-soft board.
Methodology and limitations
ERDI is an equal-weighted composite of six components. Each component is indexed to 100 using a baseline suited to the source series.
- Financing uses the current 30-year mortgage rate against the average for the same calendar week in the prior three years. Lower rates score higher.
- Housing turnover and permit velocity use the latest monthly level against the same-month average for the prior three years.
- Search demand uses the latest complete weekly value from a ten-keyword residential-trades basket against its trailing 52-week median.
- Weather stress uses the latest complete week from ten US weather stations against the same-week median from prior years.
- The proprietary signal uses weekly net review growth across a fixed contractor panel against the panel’s prior weekly median.
Monthly series update on their source publication schedules. Weekly source windows do not all end on the report’s stated week-ending date. Google Trends values are normalized to the selected query window and can drift when the source recalculates history. Echelon freezes the first computed weekly index as the number of record.
The proprietary panel measures review activity, not booked revenue. Review additions can reflect completed-job volume, review collection practices, platform timing, review removals, or a combination of those factors.
Echelon’s September 7 database snapshot contains 2,270,216 license or credential records across 20 state systems, including 1,201,419 records classified as active. These are source-native license or credential units, not unique companies, businesses, or workers. California, Florida, Oklahoma, and Wisconsin have unsafe current movement endpoints. Nevada’s current collection failed. Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, and Rhode Island are degraded. This issue makes no claim about week-over-week national license movement.
This issue uses archived source pulls and contractor-panel snapshots frozen on September 6, 2026. ERDI is a directional demand indicator, not a revenue forecast. Market-level and company-level decision support remains part of Echelon’s paid intelligence work. This is not accounting, legal, or investment advice.
Sources
[1] https://echelonreports.com/echelon-report-010-index-falls-to-95-6-as-search-and-review-velocity-weaken | Echelon Report 010
[2] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US | 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States
[3] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EXHOSLUSM495S | Existing Home Sales
[4] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PERMIT | New Privately-Owned Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits
[5] https://docs.dataforseo.com/v3/keywords_data-google-trends-explore-live | DataForSEO Google Trends API
[6] https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/global-historical-climatology-network-daily | NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network Daily
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