The Echelon Residential Demand Index (ERDI) is a weekly composite read on US residential trades demand: financing conditions, housing turnover, permit velocity, consumer search demand, weather, and Echelon’s proprietary contractor-panel signal. The index uses 100 as the seasonal norm. Hard inputs trace to their sources. Interpretation is labeled The read.
1. The Print
For the week ending August 29, 2026, the ERDI prints 98.9, up 3.7 points from last week’s 95.2 reading.[1]
The rebound is real. It is also concentrated.
The proprietary contractor-panel signal rose 32.5 points, from 56.6 to 89.1. That recovery added 5.42 points to the six-component composite. Search demand moved the other way. It fell 15.3 points, from 113.7 to 98.4, subtracting 2.55 points from the composite.
The five market-facing components averaged 100.8, down from 102.9 last week. Three of six total components remain above 100.
The read: ERDI recovered because contractor review velocity moved back toward normal. The broader market board did not strengthen with it. Search demand gave back last week’s surge, permit activity remained below norm, and the market-facing average slipped 2.1 points. This is a normalization print, not a broad acceleration.
2. The Components
| Component | This week | Last week | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|
| Search demand | 98.4 | 113.7 | Search fell 15.3 points after last week’s mechanical and replacement surge. DataForSEO supplies the Google Trends series used in the ten-keyword basket.[5] |
| Housing turnover | 100.7 | 100.7 | Existing-home sales remained at a 4.06 million annual rate against a 4.03 million three-year same-month average.[3] |
| Permit velocity | 98.9 | 95.7 | July permits improved to 1.443 million against a 1.459 million three-year same-month average. The component rose 3.2 points but remained below baseline.[4] |
| Financing | 101.6 | 100.7 | The 30-year mortgage rate averaged 6.65 percent against a 6.76 percent three-year same-week average.[2] |
| Weather stress | 104.6 | 103.7 | The ten-market thermal-stress basket remained above its same-week seasonal norm. The weather series uses NOAA daily station observations.[6] |
| Echelon proprietary | 89.1 | 56.6 | Review velocity recovered from 0.97 to 1.48 net new reviews per comparable panel member, against a 1.67 weekly baseline. |
Numbers of Record
The Echelon Residential Demand Index printed 98.9 for the week ending August 29, 2026. The prior print was 95.2. The last four frozen prints are 105.1, 99.9, 95.2, and 98.9.
The current breadth is three components above 100 and three below 100. Search demand printed 98.4. Housing turnover printed 100.7. Permit velocity printed 98.9. Financing printed 101.6. Weather stress printed 104.6. The proprietary panel signal printed 89.1.
3. The Read
The rebound came from the signal that broke last week
Last week’s 95.2 print was driven by a review-velocity shock. The proprietary component fell to 56.6 and pulled an otherwise above-normal market board below 100.[1]
That signal partially reversed this week. The panel recorded 1,386 net new reviews across 934 comparable contractors, equal to 1.48 reviews per member. The prior observation recorded 905 net new reviews across 936 comparable members, or 0.97 per member.
The 53.5 percent recovery in review velocity matters because it confirms that last week’s collapse was not a stable new operating level. It does not erase the warning. The proprietary component remains at 89.1, below its seasonal norm, and the panel has not returned to its 1.67 weekly baseline.
The read: contractor completion and review activity recovered, but only partway. Another week near 1.5 would suggest a lower but workable late-summer pace. A return below 1.0 would make last week’s break look less temporary.
Search demand gave back the surge
Search demand fell from 113.7 to 98.4. The latest complete week still showed relative strength in several high-value service lines:
- HVAC replacement: 68 on the 0-to-100 Trends scale, 12.8 points above its prior four-week average;
- water heater replacement: 64, up 8.2 points;
- AC repair: 69, up 6.2 points;
- foundation repair: 45, up 3.8 points.
Bathroom remodeling was the weakest part of the basket at 45, or 20.8 points below its prior four-week average. Furnace repair was nearly flat against its recent average.
The read: homeowner intent did not disappear. It narrowed. Essential repair and mechanical replacement terms held up better than discretionary remodeling. Contractors should read this as a service-mix shift rather than a universal loss of demand.
The market-facing board is close to neutral
The five market-facing components averaged 100.8. Financing and weather remained above norm. Housing turnover held just above 100. Permits improved but stayed below baseline. Search slipped below 100.
That balance is more informative than the 3.7-point headline rise. The index is no longer flashing the one-component shock seen last week, but it is also not showing broad expansion. The board sits near seasonal normal with uneven strength beneath it.
This matters operationally. A market near 100 rewards selection. Emergency repair, replacement, and weather-sensitive service can still produce strong local demand while remodeling and other deferrable categories soften. A single national headline will miss that split.
4. What to Watch
1. Does review velocity finish the recovery?
The proprietary signal rose to 89.1 but remains below 100. A second increase would confirm that last week’s 56.6 reading was a sharp temporary break. A reversal would reopen the question of whether completed-job volume or review collection has weakened.
2. Does search stabilize near 100?
Search fell 15.3 points after last week’s surge. The next test is whether it holds near seasonal norm or continues lower. Continued strength in AC repair, HVAC replacement, and water-heater replacement would support the service-mix reading even if the broad basket remains soft.
3. Do permits cross back above baseline?
Permit velocity improved from 95.7 to 98.9. It is close to neutral but not above it. Another monthly increase would put all three housing and financing components at or above norm. A reversal would show that lower financing pressure has not yet translated into stronger new residential activity.
The Bottom Line
The ERDI rose to 98.9, but the rebound was not broad.
The proprietary contractor-panel signal recovered 32.5 points and added 5.42 points to the composite. Search demand fell 15.3 points and the five market-facing components slipped from 102.9 to 100.8.
The market is close to seasonal normal, with real differences by service line. Review activity is recovering. Essential mechanical demand remains firmer than discretionary remodeling. Permit activity is improving but has not crossed its baseline.
The next print will show whether the index is settling near 100 or merely passing through it.
Methodology and Limitations
ERDI is an equal-weighted composite of six components. Each component is indexed to 100 using a baseline suited to the source series.
- Financing uses the current 30-year mortgage rate against the average for the same calendar week in the prior three years. Lower rates score higher.
- Housing turnover and permit velocity use the latest monthly level against the same-month average for the prior three years.
- Search demand uses the latest complete weekly value from a ten-keyword residential-trades basket against its trailing 52-week median.
- Weather stress uses the latest complete week from ten US weather stations against the same-week median from prior years.
- The proprietary signal uses weekly net review growth across a fixed contractor panel against the panel’s prior weekly median.
Monthly series update on their source publication schedules. Weekly source windows do not all end on the report’s stated week-ending date. Google Trends values are normalized to the selected query window and can drift when the source recalculates history. Echelon freezes the first computed weekly index as the number of record.
The proprietary panel measures review activity, not booked revenue. Review additions can reflect completed-job volume, review collection practices, platform timing, review removals, or a combination of those factors.
This issue uses Echelon’s archived source pulls and contractor-panel snapshots frozen on August 23, 2026. ERDI is a directional demand indicator, not a revenue forecast. Echelon Reports publishes public-records and market intelligence. This is not accounting, legal, or investment advice.
Sources
See ERDI in context
ERDI leads every issue of The Echelon Report, the weekly residential-trades intelligence brief. Read the latest issue, or commission a market-level read for your own metro.